On Thursday (April 2nd) in Asian trading, US crude oil broke through $103 per barrel, rising 4.07% on the day. Oil prices rose amid volatile trading as US President Trump delivered a national address on the war with Iran, stating that he expected the conflict to continue for another two to three weeks. Furthermore, SEB analysts pointed out that the market is betting that Trump will not allow supply disruptions to continue into the peak gasoline demand season in mid-May, as a prolonged conflict poses political risks to US gasoline prices, consumer confidence, and the midterm elections.

Despite the continued contradictory signals from the US and Iran—Trump stated that Iran had requested a ceasefire, which Iran denied, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked—analysts predict that even if a ceasefire is reached, energy transport volumes will be difficult to restore quickly. Meanwhile, OPEC's crude oil production in March fell by 7.5 million barrels per day due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, US crude oil inventories rose more than expected last week, and Saudi Arabia may raise its official selling price for Asian crude oil to a record level in May.

The daily chart maintains a slightly bullish, oscillating structure, but upward momentum has clearly weakened. Prices face significant resistance around $105, a previous high-density area; repeated failed attempts to break through this level could form a short-term top. Support lies around $95, a previous consolidation platform; a break below this level would open up further downside potential. Momentum indicators show a slowing upward slope on the daily chart, indicating weakening bullish momentum.

On the 4-hour chart, the short-term rebound in oil prices is largely driven by sentiment recovery. Technical indicators such as the RSI are near neutral territory, showing no clear overbought signals, but the sustainability of momentum is questionable. If prices fail to break through $105 effectively, a short-term pullback is possible; conversely, a breakout with significant volume could trigger a new upward trend, but the probability is relatively limited. In summary, today's trading strategy for crude oil suggests focusing on the $105.0-$110.0 resistance level and the $98.0-$93.0 support level.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.